Vital Statistics and Population Estimates

September Quarter 2024:

Key Facts:

Population Estimates

    • Total Population: Estimated at 25,200, up 2.9% from June 2024 (24,500).
    • Resident Population: Estimated at 17,300, down 0.6% from June 2024 (17,400).

Births

    • 40 registered births (20 males, 20 females), down 27.3% from 55 in June 2024.
    • Births by age group:
      o 25–29 years: 13 births (highest).
      o 30–34 years: 11 births.
      o 20–24 years and 35–39 years: 5 births each.
    • Weekly average: approximately 3 births

Deaths

    • 38 recorded deaths, up 18.8% from 32 in June 2024.
    • Weekly average: ~3 deaths.
    • No infant deaths were recorded.

Crude Rates

    • Birth Rate: 2.3 per 1,000 population.
    • Death Rate: 2.2 per 1,000 population.

Marriages

    • 127 marriages officiated, up 32.3% from June 2024.
    • Non-residents: 92.1% of all weddings.

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    Annual Change

    Total Population Estimate (Blue Line):

      • Shows a significant decline from 2019 to 2020, followed by a steady increase from 2021 to 2024.

      • The total population surpassed 25,000 in 2024, reaching its highest level within the observed period.

    Resident Population Estimate (Red Line):

      • Exhibits relative stability compared to the total population but shows a slight decline post-2022.

      • Resident population fluctuated between 16,000 and 18,000 throughout the period.

    Divergence Between Total and Resident Populations:

      • The gap between total and resident population estimates widened significantly from 2021 onwards, likely reflecting increases in non-resident populations (e.g., tourists or temporary workers).

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    Quarterly reports on the total and resident population estimate based on vital events of births and deaths plus net migration data derived from tourism and migration data. The Population and Vital Statistics reports on the total and resident population estimate base on
    vital events of birth and deaths plus net migration data derived from tourism migration data. It also reports on the various vital events such as births, deaths and marriages that occurred within the Cook Islands. Some basic demographic crude rates such as for birth, death and infants deaths including natural increase are also reported in this release.

     

    More information on Vital Statistics

    Computation of Crude Rates: Crude rates of birth, death and infant deaths are also compiled from these events. The formula used in computing these rates are as follows:

    Crude Birth Rate = Total Births/Total Resident Population * 1,000
    Crude Death Rate = Total Deaths/Total Resident Population * 1,000
    Infant Mortality Rates = Total Infant Deaths/Total Births * 1,000
    Natural Increase = Total Crude Birth Rate less Crude Death Rate

    Data Source: The records of births, deaths and marriages are compiled from the records of the Births, Deaths and Marriages Registrar of  the Ministry of Justice. For the islands outside of Rarotonga, the Deputy Registrars of each island furnish these records directly to the Cook Islands Statistics Office.

    Coverage: All records are compiled for each inhabited island of the Cook Islands and are tabulated by the date of occurrence of the event. Often these records are reconciled with the Ministry of Health (MOH) records to ascertain the compilation of one indicator for the Cook Islands.

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